Confirmation bias is to see what you want to see. Consider the breakfast we had yesterday. Four of us were going to the great Good morning 2020 conference at Grand Hotel in Stockholm for some inspiration and trendspotting. Angelo arrived first and said at the reception that he was going to the conference and asked about the breakfast. They pointed him to the famous veranda were a grandiose breakfast buffet was served. This is probably the best breakfast you can get in Stockholm, and probably the most expensive. Two more of us joined, and we started to feast on bacon, herring and pastries. But Serdar was late. Because his phone was sort of broken he was texting instead. “I’m at the end of the breakfast table”. But he was not. We immediately started to think he was on another hotel. Text messages passed back and forth, we were still convinced he was on the wrong hotel until we got the message “Do you see any advertising for the conference?”. No we did not. And then it was obvious. There was no one tweeting, no one flashing their new iPad or other signs of a conference. Just some suites sitting quietly enjoying the breakfast. The conference was in a another part of the hotel, and the breakfast was probably good but not in the deluxe category. A little explanation and excuse to the waitor actually saved us from paying (thanks a lot, we promise to come back and pay someday in the future).

Lesson learned: Don’t try to see what you want, look for evidence against your hypothesis. Don’t presume that the majority is right.